There are different ways to skin a cat, but as a general rule, you need to take advantage of Augusta National‘s par 5s to stand a chance of winning The Masters.
I’ve looked back at the last 12 years of winners’ scorecards and the worst par-5 performance in that period came from Rory McIlroy last year, who was seven-under-par for the par 5s.
In the last 52 years, only one golfer has failed to shoot under-par on the long holes and go on to win the Green Jacket. I’d suggest – although I can’t say for certain – the vast majority of winners before 1974 played the par 5s in less than 80 strokes, too.
There’s potential for disaster on all of Augusta’s long holes, but all of them are in reach in two – especially the 13th and 15th, which have always been short for par 5s.
Some 16 of the last 52 winners played the 2nd, 8th, 13th and 15th in ten-under-par or better, while only five of 52 were four-under-par or worse. The mean average of the last 50 winners’ under-par scores on the par 5s is around eight-under for the week.
The overwhelming evidence is that you have to be under-par – and generally considerably under-par – on the par 5s at Augusta to have a chance of winning The Masters. But, not always…
Enter Danny Willett…
A statistical anomaly
Danny Willett is part of an exclusive club – the only Masters champion in 52 years not to play the par-5s under par
(Image credit: Getty Images)
In 2016, Willett seemingly came from nowhere to post a bogey-free final-round 67 and win by three strokes from Jordan Spieth. He actually made two par-5 birdies during the final round, which means he was two-over-par for the long holes from rounds one to three.
Given data and trends, it’s stunning he was able to get…
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